Trade Steve Smith?

Through three games, Steve Smith has 15 receptions for 190 yards and the key piece 0, zip, no touchdowns. He is on an 0-3 Panthers team who can’t seem to get the running game back to last years form, and Delhomme hasn’t made good decisions. Until the running game gets back to form, or Mushin Muhammed or Dwayne Jarrett (tore college apart) learn how to get open and make plays.  Look for Steve Smith’s numbers to stay down, because teams will continue to double team him and force Delhomme (ranked 32^nd among active QB’s stat wise), to make plays.  This season Delhomme hasn’t been able to make plays. We would hang on to Smith to see how he does week five (they have a bye this week), if things in Carolina don’t seem like they are improving try trading him for as much talent as possible.  It is hard to do good being double covered, especially when it is every play of the game.  If no progress is made during week 5 trade him before other owners realize how much he is struggling this season.

 

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J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

The New York Jets are off to a great start this season.  A lot of things have changed since last season.  Defensive guru Rex Ryan is in his first season as head coach in the NFL. After losing future hall of famer Brett Favre in the offseason, the Jets took Mark Sanchez out of USC in the first round.  Sanchez has made big plays at times and has thrown for 606 yards and 4 touchdowns through 3 games.  Not outstanding stats, but Sanchez has done a great job of managing the game for the Jets who are now 3-0. Coach Ryan (defensive coordinator at Baltimore last year) watched Joe Flacco go through ups and downs last season.  It seemed like from day one, the Jets were going to start Sanchez, even though there was a so-called position battle at QB.  Sanchez doesn’t need to go out and be Peyton Manning in order for the Jets to win ball games.  The Jets have been tremendous on the defensive side of the ball this season. Rex Ryan has brought a flair into the Jets locker room, something that seemed to me missing last season.

 

The D is allowing only 11.0 points per game (2^nd best in league), 256.0 yards of total offense per game (3^rd best in league) and only 82.7 yards a game (9^th best in league).  They have brought heat to the quarterback this season. Using a variety of blitzing schemes against the Texans, Patriots, and Titans has been very successful thus far. The defense has been led by impressive play from the gritty LB Bart Scott and shut down CB Darrelle Revis. The Jets seem to have regained popularity in New York and Mark Sanchez is looking like could be the next coming of Joe Namath. At some point this season, the Jets are going to rely on Sanchez making big plays in order for the team to win.  It will be interesting to see how the rest of this season goes.  Last year the Jets started the season strong, going 8-3 in the first eleven games.  They ended up missing the playoffs going 1-4 in their last five games. Rex Ryan has talked smack all season, and the Jets have been backing it up.  We see the Jets making the playoffs, and being a team capable of making it to the Super Bowl, as long as the team doesn’t lose their spark once they lose a game.

 

As far as a fantasy perspective we like the Defense but this weekend they have a very explosive opposing offense.  The Jets have showed they can shut down top offenses this season so, start them at your own risk against the Saints this weekend.  Drew Brees looks like he is out there playing a video game, throwing for ridiculous stats nearly every game.   We also like Thomas Jones even after the rough day he had on Sunday. The Saints are only allowing 67 yards rushing a game, which is 5^th best in the NFL.  Play Jones this week at your own risk.  Someone has to take pressure off of Sanchez, so he will get plenty of chances to make plays.  The game is in The Big easy so the Jets need to bring their A game in order to come out with W.  Our prediction, Jets win by three.

 

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Cedric Benson, a Beast this weekend?

Cedric Benson is starting develop into the player that the Chicago Bears thought they were getting after selecting him with the 4^th overall pick in the 2005 draft.  After having a very disappointing career in the windy city, Cedric Benson is starting to blossom with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Benson is a must-start in all fantasy formats this weekend.  The Browns have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.  Are the Browns the 09-10 version of last years Lions?  We won’t start making bold predictions about the Browns going 0-16, but you get the point, they are awful. The Browns are allowing 184.3 yards a game rushing, which is ranked 30th in the league. Benson has rushed for 293 yards this season, which is good for 97.7 yards per game.  He will get plenty of touches this week, and could be a top fantasy performer, if you are lucky enough to have him, start him.

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Cowboys In A World Of Hurt?

The Dallas Cowboys  could be in a world of hurt.  Marian Barber missed Monday night's game; to make matters worse Felix Jones suffered a knee injury during the Cowboys' Monday night win against the Panthers. Both Barber and Jones can be very productive fantasy backs.  We think Barber has a 75% chance of playing in Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos.  Felix Jones on the other hand, could see an extended period of time on the sidelines.  Cowboys' owner, Jerry Jones is very concerned about the severity of Jones' knee injury.  It is uncertain right now ow long Felix Jones will be out for, but Jerry thinks Felix will need an MRI.  The injury was initially labeled as a knee strain, but it is likely the injury is more severe.  Ignore Felix during week 4, and continue to track the progress of Marian Barber.  If Tashard Choice receives a fair amount of touches he could have a good week.  Don't rely on him though, the Denver Broncos' are only allowing 78.3 yards per game on the ground, and are second in the league in total yards given up.  These defensive stats may be a little tainted considering the fairly "weak" schedule the Broncos' have had thus far.  Regardless of the schedule we feel the Broncos' will shut down Dallas' running game.  Marian Barber is the only Dallas RB that should be considered week 4, but only if he is guaranteed healthy on Sunday.

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Digging Deep - Who is Sims-Walker?

Mike Sims-Walker may have become David Garrard’s go to guy, while making multiple clutch catches in their victory Sunday. He currently has 12 receptions for 187 yards and 1 touchdown, and is averaging 15.6 yards a catch. With the 2009-2010 season being only Sims-Walker’s second year playing in the NFL, we feel his stats could improve every game.  MSW is listed as the number two receiver on the depth chart right now. Although the Jags are a run first team with Maurice Jones-Drew (AKA the Freight Train) in the backfield, Sims-Walker will start catching people’s attention, and might even become worthy of being a starting WR in deeper fantasy leagues. He available in 93% of fantasy leagues on ESPN. Scoop him up fast, by season’s end he could very well be owned in the most fantasy leagues. The Jaguars face the Titans (allowing 274.4 yards passing a game) week four. If Sims-Walker has another good game, this might be the last week you have to pick him up. Missing out on Sims-Walker could end up like being left out in the cold, and who wants to be cold?

Digging Deep - Start Glen Coffee?

Frank Gore is out for three weeks with a right ankle strain, which is a huge loss for run heavy 49ers and many fantasy owners. San Francisco is averaging 26.7 rushes per game, which means Glen Coffee will be getting plenty of touches.  Coffee is a very underrated running back and showed some upside against the Vikings week 3.  The 49ers play the Rams on Sunday.  The Rams are allowing 148 yards per game rushing, which ranks sixth worse in the league.  Coffee is available in 70% of ESPN leagues (pick him up ASAP).  If you lost Frank Gore or just are looking for a spark in your fantasy lineup take a shot on Coffee.  We think he will have a good weekend and will be the focal point in San Fran’s offense.

What Has Happened To The Steel Curtain?

They came out gunning in game one Titans (can't find a way to win), passing for 363 yards. Since then they choked against da Bears with Jeff Reed missing two, fourth quarter field goals.  Then, on Sunday they let an underrated Bengals squad drive 71 yards on 14 plays.  The last drive heroics were led by a rejuvenated Carson Palmer and a second effort on a fourth down by Brian Leonard, handing Roethlisberger his first loss to of his career in Cincinnati. If the Steelers want to turn it around they need to get the running game going, they currently rank 27th in the league in rushing yards averaging only 81.0 yards a game and at a very poor, 3.3 yards per carry. It seems like Willie Parker has lost a step or two over the offseason, and Rashard Mendenhall (didn't see a lot of carries week 3). They are relying on big Ben to carry the load, averaging 7.9 yards per completion. Opposing defenses have concentrated primarily on the pass. The offensive line has allowed 7 sacks through 3 games.  

The receiving core is led by Hines Ward (18 receptions for 242 yards) and Santonio Holmes (15 receptions for 232 yards and 1 touchdown) who is the most productive WR on the Steelers as a fantasy player. Limas Sweed, who was a stud at the University of Texas has yet to develop and had a key drop which would have been a key touchdown in the Steelers week 3 loss.  However, Mike Wallace (2009 3rd round pick) has 12 receptions for 147 yards and one touchdown. This kid can flat out fly, we believe this kid will emerge as the deep threat and put up solid #-two or #-three fantasy wide out numbers.  Consider picking up Wallace in deeper fantasy leagues, assuming the Steelers will continue to rely on throwing the ball. Once Troy Polamalu comes back from his current injury, we think the Steelers will turn things around. When Polamalu gets back will it be too late? The Steelers have a soft schedule coming up against the Chargers, the Lions, then hapless Browns. We think the Steelers could go 3-0 in their next 3 games. Like we said earlier, consider picking up Wallace, and try to make a trade for Willie Parker, it is sensible (cont. reading). You should be able to get Parker on the cheap. We think he is going to explode in the next three weeks, considering he plays the Chargers (allowing 142.3 yds. rushing/game),  Lions (allowing 113.3 yds. rushing/game), and Browns (allowing 184.3 yds. rushing/game) . We think Parker will be a solid fantasy start the next three weeks, and that the Steelers will turn around their season.

 

Chad Pennington, Torn Shoulder, Out For Season.

The Miami Dolphins have had a very disappointing start to the ‘09-‘10 season.   Not only are they 0-3, they just lost Chad Pennington for the year.  If you owned Pennington, look to pick someone up off of waivers, and don’t rely on Pennington’s replacement, Chad Henne.  Henne is a second year quarterback out of Michigan.  He is a very talented quarterback, but with the Dolphins facing the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, he is a very risky player to start for week 4.  The Buffalo Bills showed us against the Saints that they could shut down the pass.  Drew Brees the Saints’ QB is arguably the most productive fantasy QB this season. Brees was virtually shut down, only passing for 172 yards and no touchdowns.  Look for the Dolphins to attack the Bills on the ground similar to what the Saints did week 3.  Ronnie Brown has been fairly productive this season out of the wildcat formation, and he could be the difference maker.  If you are looking for an emergency RB starter, see if Ricky Williams is a free agent, he could have a very productive day.  The Dolphins won’t put too much pressure on Henne, and will most likely come out pounding the ball on the ground Sunday.  Start Brown in all formats, and start Williams if needed. WR’s Teddy Ginn Jr. and Davone Bess could see their fantasy value drop after the injury of Pennington.  We aren’t saying Henne will be a non-factor, but it is a very hard league to succeed in right away, especially when you are facing a defense who is coming off a week where they down the most productive QB in the league.  You can’t trust Henne in any fantasy format.

Digging Deep - Pierre Garcon

Pierre Garcon WR IND – Available in 97% of ESPN leagues.  Due to the recent injury of Anthony Gonzalez, the Indianapolis Colts have been in search for a number 2 receiver capable of being opposite of Reggie Wayne.  Garcon might be that guy, and anytime you have a number-2 wide receiver whose quarterback is Peyton Manning you need to consider that player in terms of a fantasy perspective.  During the Colts week 3 game against the Cardinals, Garcon had 64 yards and his 2^nd touchdown of the season.  He looked like a reliable deep threat beating the relatively solid, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on the outside.  Garcon is Manning’s 3^rd favorite target behind, (WR) Reggie Wayne and (TE) Dallas Clark. But as Garcon continues to gain experience (only in his second NFL season) and Manning’s confidence, he could turn into a much more reliable Fantasy option.  Pick up Garcon if you are in need of a reserve wide receiver. He is a big sleeper but the rewards of an acquisition out weigh the risks. 

Digging Deep - Vernon Davis

Vernon Davis TE SF – Available in 91% of ESPN leagues.  A tight end that runs a 4.38 forty-yard dash would be any coach’s dream.  Well, that is exactly how fast Vernon Davis is.  He has had a very disappointing start to his career; the 49’rs drafted Davis with the 6^th overall pick in the 2006 draft.  Using a 6^th overall pick for a tight end is basically unheard of, but that is the type of athlete that Davis is.  San Francisco doesn’t have a bona fide number one receiver, and with Frank Gore possibly being hurt for the next few weeks, a number one is exactly what Davis could turn into.  Obviously a tight end with such amazing speed creates mismatches, but Davis finally showed signs of capitalizing on mismatches. He caught 7 passes for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns, in the 49’rs near week 3 win against the Minnesota Vikings.  With the tight-end position being scarce, Davis is about as close to a must add free agent as you can get.

Digging Deep - Johnny Knox

Johnny Knox WR CHI – Available in 80% of ESPN leagues.   The kid is a pure deep threat, and with a quarterback with the type of arm Cutler has, it makes him a big weapon.  One of Cutler’s favorite targets, Knox has 4.3-40 yard dash speed, and has pretty good mitts as well.  Could this be the 2009 version of Eddie Royal?  Only time will tell, but we think he could definitely turn a fantasy impact player.  He has 2 touchdowns in three games, and his week 3 touchdown against Seattle, had peoples jaws dropping.  Cutler has no wide-outs who have proven to be a true number-1; we think Knox could fill those shoes.  The Bears play the Lions week 4 before going into the bye week, so Knox would be as close to a must start as there is.

Digging Deep - Correll Buckhalter

Correll Buckhalter RB DEN – Available in 62% of ESPN leagues.  We feel that Buckhalter could become a legitimate starting fantasy running back in Week 4.  He led the Broncos’ in yards Week 3 with 108 yards on 14 carries.  Yes Knowshown Moreno is now healthy, but it appears the Broncos’ backfield will consist of both Moreno and Buckhalter for now.  Why fix something when it’s not broken?  Coach McDaniels opinion could change.   In upcoming weeks the Broncos’ host Dallas, and New England, and then go on the road to San Diego week 6.  Week 7 is the bye week, which means week 8 would be a sensible time for McDaniels to start rushing one player much more favorably than the other.  Pay attention to both Buckhalter and Moreno due to the fact the Broncos’ usually are in the top 5 in the league in rushing.

Sleeper for life?

It seems like Vincent Jackson hasn't been getting any respect over the last two years of  his career, every year he is a sleeper pick according to many fantasy sources. He has  developed alongside Philip Rivers into a number 1 wide out threat, and has become his go to guy. At 6-5  230 Jackson is a beast, along with being a goaline threat ever time  the Chargers are in the red zone, he can get open on every play because of his size and leaping ability. In 'o6 he had 27 receptions for 453 yards, in 0'7 he had 41 receptions for 623 yards, these don't seem like big numbers but these were only his second and third year, while LT was the focal point of the offense. L.T. ran for 1,815 yards in '06 and in '07 he ran for 1,474 yards, big numbers from one of the greatest running backs of all time. This put less pressure on Jackson to put up big numbers, however last season when LT was having a down year Jackson had 59 receptions for 1,098 yards and seven td's. 

This kids game has improved dramatically and he should be considered as an elite wide out.  This year he is playing on the number one passing team in the league through 3 games, and has 16 receptions for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chargers play the Steelers next week and Jackson will likely be matched up against Ike Taylor.   We like Jackson in the Steelers matchup.  After playing the Steelers, the Chargers will play the Broncos, with Champ Bailey likely being the corner who will cover Jackson.  Play Jackson at your own risk against the Broncos, although it is still possible he could cause hell for Denver.  We believe he will continue to tear defenses apart, while being in the number one pass offense in the league, not to mention the impressive play from the ever maturing Rivers.  We think anybody in need of a wideout should trade for my man Vincent Jackson, look for him to have top ten numbers for wideouts, not bad for a guy only in his 5th year.  You may be able to get him fairly cheap, you never know!

Felix Jones, a BEAST on Monday Night?

Dallas Cowboys RB, Felix Jones is expected to get the workload tomorrow night (Marion the Barbarian is listed as questionable, due to a thigh injury), against the Carolina Panthers.  The Panthers defense has given up an average of 168 yards per game on the ground this season, while the Cowboys' offense has averaged 184.5 yards per game on the ground.  Jones' has only 13 carries this season, but has gone for 118 yards on the ground, averaging 9.1 yards per-carry along with a touchdown in two games.  We think that Jones is good for 120 yards on the ground with 2 rushing touchdowns, on Monday night.  Expect big things!

How Bout Them Broncos?

Is Denver for real? Or is their success just a result of a soft early schedule? Denver's defense is rated number 2 in the AFC (as of Sept. 27th) with a league leading 10 sacks, also totaling 5 interceptions through 3 games. They are only allowing 5.3 points per game while allowing a league best 214.7 yards a game. Pretty stout, even if they have played two of the worst teams in Oakland and Cleveland. On the other side of the ball nothing flashy at all, besides averaging 158.7 yards a game rushing third best in the league.  

If you have a roster spot available, take a chance on Knowshon Moreno or Correll Buckhalter, one of these guys will be carrying the workload in a few weeks. Kyle Orton who was traded for the man who was supposed to fill the shoes of Elway in Jay Cutler, hasn't done anything special but win. He hasn't thrown any interceptions but has only thrown three touchdowns. His go to man Marshall only has 12 receptions and one touchdown through 3 games,  not very good for an elite receiver, not a great audition for a guy who wanted out of Denver all summer. The way Denver is having Orton run the game, is a lot like Brett Favre in Minnesota, just hand the ball off and manage the game, just do enough to win and rely on great defensive play. 

Denver has a tough upcoming schedule, with games against Dallas, New England, and the Division rival Chargers in the next three weeks. It may be easier than it sounds since they get Dallas and New England at home where they're above five hundred the last two seasons, but New England showed today they're a force to be reckoned with. We believe if they can win two out of the next three games Denver  is a favorite to be playoff bound, in the AFC.   This schedule is very  tough for a young team that McDaniels is trying to rebuild, start Denver players/defense with caution over the next three weeks.  

Johnny Knox, a Diamond in the Rough?

Rookie wideout Johnny Knox, has been a key offensive weapon this year for the Chicago Bears.  A 5th round draft choice out of Abilene Christian,  Knox has displayed, tremendous speed this season (he ran a 4.34 forty yard dash in NFL combine), and has become one of QB Jay Cutler's favorite targets. Coming in to today's game Knox had 152 yards receiving with one touchdown score. Today Knox added an impressive 7 yard touchdown.  As Jay Cutler continues to get more comfortable in Chicago, look for Johnny Knox to be a fantasy player similar to that of Eddie Royal last season.  If you are in a deep fantasy league, and are looking for a spark from your wide-outs, Johnny Knox could be the answer.  

Still Brees-ing on by?

Will Drew Brees' continue to dominate?  We feel that he has a very good chance of duplicating or bettering his week 2 performance. The Bills have given up an average of 332 yards  through the air per game this season.  Yes, Leodis McKelvin has shown people that he can be a shut down corner, but  New Orleans might just have too many offensive weapons. If Marques Colston is shut down on the outside, the Bills still need to cover Jeremy Shockey, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem.  Not to mention a dual threat running back in Reggie Bush. Yes, Lance Moore appears to be out for the game, but we still feel the Saints' offense is just to much for the Bills to handle.  Expect somewhere around 350 yards and at least 3 touchdowns passing from Brees today.  Obviously a must start in all formats, you can tell your opponent to Feel The Brees!

WD FORTE!

Matt Forte was a top 10 pick in most fantasy drafts this year. Yet he hasn't had a game yet that makes him worthy of such a high draft position.  Is this the week he puts up the Matt Forte of old, type numbers?  The Chicago Bears play the Seattle Seahawks' today. The Seahawks' defense has been tore up so far this year, giving up an average of 166.5 yards per game on the ground.  But, Forte has only 84 yards rushing through two games. C'mon he's bound to breakout soon right?  If you have been upset with Forte's play this season, today should be a different story.  We are thinking somewhere along the lines of 140 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, and a pair of rushing td's.  Look for WD-Forte to be a top fantasy performer during week 3, looking more like the Matt Forte who was high on many of our draft boards this preseason.  

Will Aaron Rodgers Breakout Today?

Aaron Rodgers' season hasn't started like he wanted it too.  His poor play is in large part due to the poor offensive line's play.  With the Packers facing the Rams today, we believe today will be the day Rodgers breaks out.  Rodgers was projected by many sources to be a top 5 fantasy QB, yet he has only thrown for 376 yards through two games.  The Rams definitely aren't the most talented defensive unit in the league, and we feel that week 3 will be a monster, statistically for Aaron Rodgers.  Our projections for today's game: 350 yards through the air along with 4 passing touchdowns.  With the fairly strong wide receiving core in Green Bay (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and  James Jones), and the below average pass defense in St. Louis, Rodgers should be able to pick apart the defense and have a big day.  Also expect a big day from Greg Jennings, yet another Packer on the verge of a breakout.

What Will Ochocinco Do Against the Defending Champs?

Is Ochocinco bound for a rebound?  We think so.  After an incredibly disappointing season in 08-09 (only 540 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns), Chad "Esteban" Ochocinco (formerly known as Chad Johnson), looks like he is well on his way to becoming an elite fantasy wide receiver once again.  He demonstrated during the pre-season that not only can he catch touchdowns, "Esteban" can also kick extra points.  We don't actually think his kicking game will be an asset this year in terms of fantasy, but what can't Chad do?  During the off season, "Esteben" brought boxing into his workout routine!  It seems to be working thus far.   "Esteban" showed us on Twitter that he can; rap, cook, box, kick, etc, the list could go on forever. 

But can he return to being an elite wide-receiver again?  In the first two games of the 09-10 season, Ochocinco is averaging 90 yards a game, and last week caught his first touchdown of the season at Green Bay.  Not only did he catch a touchdown, but he did the "Lambeau Leap"!  He did what? At Green Bay? No way? Yes, he did folks, its just Chad being Chad, as Manny would say.  His week 3 opponents the Pittsburgh Steelers, are giving up an average of 232.5 yards a game through the air.  Can they cover Ochocinco?   We think he is good for at least 130 yards receiving, and yes a touchdown score.  What will he do, if and when he crosses the pylon? Child Please!  We can't answer that, only Esteban knows!  

What to do with Fred Jackson?

What can we expect from RB Fred Jackson, of the Buffalo Bills after week 3 in a Fantasy perspective?  Sunday will be Fred Jackson's last chance to prove to coach Dick Jauron he is worthy of a starting role.  Marshawn Lynch is eligible to return week 4 against the Miami Dolphins, after serving a 4 game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.  This puts Roto-players, as well Jauron in a very tough situation.  According to BuffaloBills.com, when coach Jauron was asked about the scenario he had this to say, "I think I'll think about it after this week," said Jauron. "We've said all along we've felt like we have more than two (running backs)."  

What does this tell us?  If Fred Jackson comes anywhere close to duplicating his week 2 performance, (he carried the ball 28 times for a total of 163 yards)  against the New Orleans Saints week 3, he will likely be seeing the majority of the workload week 4.  The New Orleans Saints have given up an average of just 56 yards per game on the ground this season.  That is a deceiving stat, considering the fact that the Saints have been ahead of their opponent the majority of the time, causing their opponents to have a pass heavy offense. 

What we expect out of the upcoming position battle?  The Roto Maestros project,  25 carries for 125 yards on the ground with 2 rushing touchdowns, as well as 30 yards receiving out of the backfield week 3 for Jackson.  It is highly likely that Jackson will see a majority of the Bills carries until he is unable to produce.  Yes, Lynch's work ethic has improved dramatically as compared to that of a year ago, but how can Jauron bench a guy that is averaging 110 yards per game, for a team that should be 2-0?  Let week 3 play-out, and if Fred Jackson is anywhere as productive as our projections, he is a must-start week 4.